Lesley Bankes-Hughes
IEA: World has ‘narrow’ pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050
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Rhys Berry
Ariane Morrissey
Llewellyn Bankes-Hughes
What a Damascene conversion. in 2019 the IEA forecast that we were entering a golden era for gas! This is yet another pipedream, by long range forecasters who will not be around to be accountable for its outcome. I have been working in the Oil industry for 50 + years and the one thing I know for certain is that every long term forecast I was given to work with, turned out to be utter rubbish. In 1972 BP they built an additional 400,000 bpd of hydroskimming capacity at Rotterdam on long term forecasts of 10% compound growth for the foreseeable future. Then came 1973 and the market crashed and the refinery never again ran at its full capacity. In 1980 we given forecasts by Erasmus University professor Peter O’Dell that the oil majors were hiding from the world the fact that oil only had 25 years of supply available. We are now in surplus.
I would classify this forecast in the same order. The only problem is that if the banks and finance houses follow this advice, the unintended consequences will be enormous. The beneficiaries will be Russia and the Middle East. The bankrupts will be the western pension funds.